Three sides have ensured qualification for the playoffs in IPL 2026, with five other teams separated by a mere two points fighting out for the last one spot. Here's what's at stakes for each side with just five games left to play in the league phase.

Points table after match #65 - KKR vs MI

Notes: All NRR calculations in this copy presuming team batting first scoring 200 runs in a full 20-overs contest.

What does the win against LSG signify for Rajasthan Royals?

Remaining fixtures: MI (A)

This win ensures the fate of their progress firmly remains in their grasp.

- If RR beat MI, they get to 16 points and qualify irrespective of how other games pan out. They may even have an outside shot at a top two position should both GT and SRH drop their respective final games. If both GT and SRH lose by 10 runs each, RR should win by 70 runs to sneak their NRR ahead for a second-place finish.

- If RR lose to MI in their last fixture, then can get to only 14 points and can be pipped by both PBKS as well as KKR on 15 points if they win their respective final games. For RR to qualify on 14 points without NRR, PBKS should lose to LSG, KKR lose to DC, and CSK lose to GT. In that case, PBKS and KKR will end with 13 point each while CSK will finish at 12. DC are more than 200 runs behind RR on NRR even if they achieve parity on points with RR.

- Even if it comes down to NRR on 14 points tie, they have a head start on NRR to the two other sides that can reach 14 points: CSK (-0.016) and DC (-0.871). Even if RR lose by 10 runs to MI, CSK needs to win by 15+ runs against GT and while for DC, its near impossible given the difference.

How does Royals' win affect the other contenders?

Should RR beat MI in their final match and get to 16 points, it's curtains for all the four teams below them.

All the below scenarios are valid only in case of MI getting the better of RR in the penultimate fixture of the league phase, so that RR stays on 14 points.

Punjab Kings & Kolkata Knight Riders

Remaining fixtures: LSG vs PBKS; KKR vs DC

- If PBKS beat LSG and KKR beat DC both get to 15 points each; PBKS have a head start on NRR at 0.227 to KKR's 0.011 and have a difference of around 51 runs. If PBKS win by 10 runs, KKR have to beat DC by 61 runs or more.

- If PBKS win and KKR lose, PBKS will go through and vice versa.

- If both end up losing, both stand eliminated.

Chennai Super Kings

Remaining fixtures: GT (A)

- If CSK win their final match, they will be tied on 14 points with RR and possibly DC, should DC beat KKR. The result of this match will be rendered obsolete if either PBKS or KKR win their final matches. For an NRR pushover, CSK needs a cushion of 25 runs over RR, should both get tied on 14 points.

- A defeat to GT will end CSK's campaign, their third successive group stage exit post their title win in 2023.

Delhi Capitals

Remaining fixtures: KKR (A)

DC are still in contention theoretically, but for all practical purposes they cannot make it even if other results align and they get tied on 14 points (for which PBKS and CSK have to drop their final game, and MI must beat RR). RR and DC differ by over 200 runs on NRR currently making it a highly unlikely proposition, even with other results aligning.

What's happening at the top of the points table?

Remaining fixtures: GT vs CSK; SRH vs RCB

RCB, GT, and SRH have all qualified and all three have a fair shot for a top two finish. GT clash with CSK on Thursday, and RCB take on SRH the next day and it will give them clear equations on what margin they should win/avoid defeat for a desired result.

- If RCB and GT win their last fixtures, they will meet in Qualifier 1.

- If RCB and CSK win, RCB will get to 20 points and finish as league topper, and it will come down to NRR between GT and SRH, and possibly RR, if they also win against MI. The difference in NRR between GT and SRH is currently around 13 runs.

- If SRH and GT win, it will come down to a three-way tie on 18 points. For RCB to lose out on a top two slot, they will have to lose to SRH by 87 runs, and then GT will have to beat CSK by around 76 runs.

- If SRH and CSK win the two games, RCB and SRH will finish as the top two sides on 18 points each.