Matt Henry almost didn't play at The Oval.

A hamstring niggle in the lead-up to the series and back spasms that curtailed his contribution in the first Test at Lord's had left his participation for the second Test in doubt. Five days later, he was leading New Zealand off the field after a stirring victory that squared the series 1-1.

The turnaround was remarkable. From nearly missing the Test, Henry walked away with the best match figures by a New Zealand bowler on English soil and the second-best by a New Zealand seamer in an away Test (11/109), behind only Sir Richard Hadlee's iconic 15-wicket haul at the Gabba in 1985/86.

Yet, for those who have followed Henry's second act in Test cricket, The Oval was less an outlier and more a continuation of a trend. Over the last five years, he has quietly developed into one of the most effective fast bowlers in the world across formats.

The turning point at Edgbaston

It was another English summer that first convinced Henry he belonged at Test level.

Despite making his debut in 2015, opportunities were limited in New Zealand's settled pace attack of Tim Southee, Trent Boult and Neil Wagner. While he became a regular in ODI cricket, renowned for his new ball skills, his red-ball career struggled to gain momentum. Between May 2015 and June 2021, Henry featured in only 13 of New Zealand's 47 Tests. The returns reflected his stop-start opportunities: 31 wickets at 51.55, striking only once every 16 overs.

Henry's Test career

Southee's absence for the second Test against England at Edgbaston in 2021 opened the door. Henry seized it with a six-wicket match haul that helped New Zealand secure their first Test series win in England in the 21st century. Although he was left out a week later for the inaugural World Test Championship final and still had to wait for a permanent place in the XI, Edgbaston proved to be the defining inflection point of his career.

Since that Test, Henry has collected 121 wickets in 22 matches at 19.51, striking every 38.8 deliveries. Among the 29 bowlers with at least 75 Test wickets during this period, only Jasprit Bumrah (18.51) and Scott Boland (18.58) boast of a better average. The leading wicket-taker in this period, Mitchell Starc, has played 44 Tests - exactly twice as many as Henry - underlining both New Zealand's sparse Test schedule and the scale of Henry's returns.

Best average in Tests since June 2021 (75+ wickets)

The engine behind New Zealand's away success

Henry's resurgence has been central to many of New Zealand's biggest overseas victories.

He was Player of the Match in both of their Test wins in England this decade and Player of the Series during the 2-0 sweep in Zimbabwe last year. His spell of 5/15 on an overcast morning in Bengaluru laid the foundation for India's lowest home Test total - 46 all out. Henry finished with eight wickets in the match as New Zealand recorded their first Test win in India since 1988 before sealing a maiden series triumph there.

His influence has extended to home conditions as well, especially against two teams they have historically struggled with. Against Australia in early 2024, he claimed 17 wickets in two Tests to earn Player of the Series honours despite New Zealand dropping the series. Two years earlier, he played a leading role in ending another long-standing drought against South Africa, taking 14 wickets in two Tests, including a career-best 7/23 in Christchurch - the joint best innings figures for New Zealand at home, alongside Hadlee. He also contributed an unbeaten 58 that helped New Zealand secure their first Test victory over South Africa since 2004.

Henry - home vs away since June 2021

The method behind the success

Much of Henry's success stems from relentless accuracy. At The Oval, he repeatedly targeted the traditional 6-8 m length with his trademark wobble seam delivery. Nearly half his deliveries (47%) landed in the conventional good-length zone, from which he claimed figures of 5/23.

The approach was simple but highly effective. With Tom Blundell standing up to the stumps for long periods, Henry pinned England's batters deep inside the crease and denied them opportunities to move across or commit fully onto the front foot. The tactic repeatedly troubled England's two premier batters. Joe Root was trapped LBW in both innings, while Harry Brook fell LBW in the first before edging to slip in the second. Nine of Henry's 11 wickets came with the keeper standing up, including each of his first eight dismissals.

More than a new-ball specialist

Henry's reputation has largely been built on dismantling top orders, and few have done it better. Among the 19 bowlers dismissing opening batters at least 20 times since June 2021, Henry's average of 15.56 and strike rate of 32.5 are comfortably the best. No batter has suffered more than Zak Crawley, whom he has dismissed eight times (seven while opening), including six dismissals in six innings during England's tour of New Zealand in late 2024, requiring just 33 deliveries.

Best average vs opening batters since June 2021 (min. 20 wickets)

But reducing Henry to a new-ball specialist would be half-truth. Of his 121 wickets since Edgbaston, 68 have come with the new ball (first or second) at 20.49 and a strike rate of 41.4. His remaining 53 wickets with a ball older than 30 overs came at an even better average of 18.26 and a strike rate of 35.4. The Oval provided the perfect illustration. Every one of his 11 wickets arrived between overs 31 and 80.

In that phase (overs 31-80) alone, Henry has taken 50 wickets at 18.10, striking every 34.9 deliveries. Those numbers place him ahead of Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood, Mohammed Siraj, Kemar Roach and James Anderson during the same period.

Why right-handers struggle against him

Henry's greatest weapon remains the combination of a wobble seam release and relentless good-length bowling from over the wicket. All 11 wickets at The Oval were right-handers. Since June 2021, he averages just 17.06 against right-handed batters and takes a wicket every 34 deliveries. Among seamers who have dismissed right-handers at least 25 times in this period, no seamer boasts a better average. Only Gus Atkinson (33.3) and Marco Jansen (33.7) marginally better his strike rate, despite bowling significantly fewer deliveries to right-handers.

Left-handers have enjoyed relatively greater success. Henry has taken 32 wickets against southpaws at 26.31 with a strike rate of 51.7, where the steeper angles to left handers for right arm bowlers naturally reduces some of the uncertainty generated by his wobble seam deliveries.

Best avg vs RHB since 2021 (min 25 wickets)

In the company of greats

Henry's current run stands among the finest sustained periods by a New Zealand fast bowler. Only five New Zealand bowlers have recorded 100-plus wickets across a 22-Test sequence. Among them, only Hadlee's tally of 139 wickets between March 1984 and March 1987 surpasses Henry's 121.

That Hadlee stretch coincided with some of New Zealand's greatest achievements: maiden Test series victories against Australia and England both home and away, a first home series win over Pakistan and a maiden successful tour of Sri Lanka.

100+ wickets for NZ in a 22-Test sequence

The comparison becomes even more impressive when widened globally. Only 31 bowlers in Test history have taken 120 or more wickets in a 22-Test span, with five achieving the feat multiple times. Of those sequences, only four produced a better strike rate than Henry's 38.8 that includes Waqar Younis, Dale Steyn, Muttiah Muralitharan and Kagiso Rabada. In the 21st century, only Steyn and Rabada have collected more wickets than Henry's 121 across a comparable 22-Test stretch among seamers.

Best SR in a 22-Test sequence (120+ wickets)

England has often been the backdrop to Henry's finest moments. He spearheaded New Zealand's attack during the 2019 ODI World Cup, finishing with 14 wickets and earning Player of the Match against India in the semifinal. His 31-wicket T20 Blast campaign for Somerset in 2023 helped revive his T20 career. And now, five years after Edgbaston changed the trajectory of his Test journey, another masterpiece at The Oval has further strengthened his place among the game's elite seamers.

For a bowler who spent the first half of his Test career on the fringes, Henry has emerged as New Zealand's attack leader and one of the premier seamers in world cricket. Five years after Edgbaston became the launchpad for his Test renaissance, he arrives at Trent Bridge with a series on the line and a chance to shape another landmark result.